 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
Islandification had been the single most important fundamental ecological concept of the twentieth century. Biodiversity as it had been, either at the beginning, or at the end of the twentieth century is a lost cause. The semantics involved in giving a name to the crisis in the biosphere is a tacit acknowledgement of that fact. We call the problem the kankyou mondai, the environmental problem. We do not use a label which mentions the other life forms. Why bother? They aren't important. If they were we would control our population responsibly. And we would use a term for the problem which would keep the two main components of the problem where they belong, in the consciousness of all humans, not as ancillary hypothetical afterthoughts. Overpopulated humans are exterminating other life forms. Does the term environmental encompass these two core components of the ecological crisis? No. It is a semantic device specifically designed for ignoring them. Some may say that using the term environmental is a way to focus attention on the most important general concept. That is true. Concern for human environment is the antithesis of concern for existence of expendable life forms. An understanding of islandification necessarily brings with it the realization of the end game consequences of the human juggernaut. A picture of the nature and the time frame of the end game for millions of life forms becomes quite clear. The time for an opportunity to change the outcome so that ecosystems which existed either at the beginning or at the end of the twentieth century would have a chance of sustaining themselves in their original state has passed. What one does with this understanding is an open question. Some are saddened or enraged by it. Some are made happy by it. Most are unaware of it intentionally.
Islandification which results in biodiversity decay is the reason that animals and biodiversity in general don't stand a chance of lasting in a natural form even until mid century, much less the end of the century. 2/3 of several categories of organisms will be exterminated completely. Many organisms are within eyesight of a minimum viable population either as a whole or in isolated and fragmented subpopulations. That is why it is so easy to predict with a measure of certainty that they will quickly disappear. Especially when one considers the trend. So very many organisms and categories of organisms find themselves at the bottom of a line trending suddenly and sharply downward. Relative to evolutionary time, the last two hundred years is about a millisecond. At the bottoms of these trend lines downward many organism populations are fragmented and uncomfortably close to MVP levels, others are at levels which represent mere fractions of the numbers extant before humans had started to cause islandification, fragmentation and biodiversity decay on massive scales. When the human world population has risen above 7.6 billion the word many in the previous sentence can be replaced with the word most, generally.
Although mass-media could flip public opinion in the blink of an eye, the Juggernaut shows no signs of abating. Of course it is an impossibility but, were there to be a moratorium on increases in human numbers, islandification and biodiversity decay could be slowed. Islandification is a process which has yet to approach its equilibrium steady state. Consideration of the equilibrium point enables one to appreciate that for current human numbers the equilibrium state, viz. habitat expropriation by humans, is far from being reached. Humans have quite a lot more spreading out to do before advances into areas of lesser human density begin to decrease. In addition to physically spreading out humans are constantly increasing their ecological footprint. Assuming there were a moratorium on population increase and assuming that there were actually limitless resources and limitless technology, so that globalization could deliver an American lifestyle universally, the ecological footprint of the majority of humans on the other side of the 80/20 divide, some 4.8 billion of them, would increase on a per capita basis by 400%. But many more humans will be added each year. The ecosystem necessarily needs to remain intact to avoid dissolving into smaller and smaller chunks and pieces. Islandification is the process by which humans first crack, then break apart, then shatter to pieces intact ecosystems. Ecosystems once divided into islands undergo a process of dissolution and decay of biodiversity which is identical in predictability to radioactive decay or to the loss of thermokinetic energy of particulate matter as it cools. As far as observation has gone, the law of biodiversity decay is applicable to all fragmented islands without exception. In the science of ecology this has been one immutable law, all sudden global change leads to the extinction of species. The human changes of the last hundred years have been both very profound and very sudden in an evolutionary time frame.
Kinetics of island biodiversity decay.
Generic decreasing geometrical progression expression. N is the number of species at time, t, N sub 0 the original number of species, and lambda is a constant. Differentiating gives, It is observed experimentally that with the ecological process of island formation, the abundance of biodiversity decreases in a geometrical progression as time increases arithmetically. The decay of biodiversity of fragmented islands follows first order kinetics.
The following equations all apply to first
order biodiversity decay in islands:
Biodiversity decay is an important ecological concept. Due to the statistical nature of ecological studies exact quantification of living and extinct species is difficult. Very difficult. In the present extremely acute ecological crisis time is a scarce commodity and exact quantification has little if any practical relevance. Generalized trends derived from observation carry the most significance since time is so short. To perform quantification studies require relatively closed systems and time. Lovejoy has devised ways to study such ecosystem decay in the Amazon jungle. His islands are of various sizes from ten hectares to ten thousand hectares. But we won't have the luxury of enough time to study them properly. If NASA presented images properly we would be able to visualize the destruction at every global location with a resolution on the order of square meters. Ground truthing visualization, in effect. But, no. NASA instead rejects its responsibility to humankind and life forms. NASA will not allow its dozens of satellites and millions of images to be used in such a manner. Nonetheless if NASA presented images properly we would be able to visualize habitat destruction at every global location like this albeit with far greater resolution:
If there were one single ecological concept Kansans should assiduously ignore, that concept would be ecological concept of islandification. Many virtually lobotomized Kansans insist that current ecological conditions which have been allowed to develop are overwhelmingly complex and difficult to comprehend. This conveniently incorrect assertion seems to suit Homo negatus americanus, var. kansasii very well. Why be bothered with reality when a convenient socially constructed illusion can relieve pesky feelings of angst so effectively? If one is a normal mass-media trained adult, one may well be quite unaware of the either-or relationship of illusion and reality. The focus of the science of ecology in its nascent period was markedly different. Ecology had been concerned with ecosystems of which there were still a considerable number. Ecologists were much more actively concerned about the stark implications of islandification. Now as many ecosystems have shrunk and decayed and even functionally disappeared, thinking in terms of management and agriculture are rapidly replacing aggressive thinking in terms of ecosystems. Such aggressiveness is viewed as naive and ideological, and less desirable than complacency towards the status quo. |
|
Biodiversity loss as measured by SANI values and species extinctions is an indicator of human overpopulation. Once biodiversity has reached a sufficiently low level, it is no longer a valid indicator of HOP. Progress of human overpopulation along a continuum can not be indirectly measured by this indicator indefinitely. Islandification and biodiversity decay are promoted by any and all means which encourage increases in human numbers. The only remedy for biodiversity destruction is a reduction in human numbers. A reduction in human numbers is absolutely unacceptable. Biodiversity as a reason for voluntarily decreasing human numbers is absolutely inconceivable. American dreamers like to fantasize about the American population increase being essentially zero. Actually, demographers have predicted an American population of 370 to 400 million. |
|
Jonathan Weiner, The Next One Hundred Years, 1990 |
|
|
|
Good luck with web searches on this subject:
|
