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Penguin Composite Population Graph
Since Mr. Weiner's book was published in 1990, it has been widely reported that 90% of the krill in Antarctic waters have disappeared. In 2001 penguins from the Antarctic began arriving on the beaches in Rio de Janeiro. It was not a regular migration. It has never happened before. Penguins were forced to make the swim of several thousand miles because there is a severe lack of food source in their native habitat. This development is particularly ominous for baleen and sperm whales which are more directly dependent upon the krill. The general media has yet to report a clear linkage of these events. They are probably trying to find some way to put some kind of spin on it which will allow for the preservation of the illusion that the earth has not been overpopulated by humans. This is an example of predictions by scientists which have come true much sooner than publicly stated because their original predictions had been intentionally conservative so as not to be seen as alarmist. The north polar ice cap was found to have melted through in 2000, fifty years ahead of schedule. In all likelihood the large Antarctic ice shelf will break off far ahead of schedule as well. It is interesting to note that NASA has announced in late August 2001 that an important satellite monitoring ozone will be discontinued since the piddling cost of ten million dollars has been labelled excessive. Just when the information the satellite could provide is needed more than ever before. It makes you wonder just what the heck their priorities really are. By far one of the most powerfull tools for obtaining the necessary scientific information and at a critical time of need. They just say, "Oh, well. We don't need it anymore." Which is more important the information, or the lack of it.
The opportunity for conservation of penguin numbers in order to preserve the illusion that humans have not overpopulated the planet may have passed. The halogen containing compounds which participate in the radical chain reaction mechanisms which break down ozone started to be phased out just at the end of the 20th century. Production of certain halocarbons was stopped in industrialized nations. The production was continued in other countries. Humans finally woke up and drastically reduced certain halocarbons used as refrigerants and aerosol sprays. That was a nice first step. Although it was a baby step, it was in the right direction. But then other halocarbons were substituted for the ones whose production had been reduced. Many more halocarbon compounds are in production. It may be true that humans can find substitutes for halocarbons. Thus far however, humans have substituted some halocarbons with other halocarbons. And the stratospheric ozone hole has become a large and permanent feature of polar meteorology. The stratosphere. The stratosphere is where ozone functions to reduce UV radiation. Halocarbon compounds which have been released into the atmosphere thus far have not yet reached the stratosphere. The peak concentration levels have yet to be reached in the stratosphere both globally and at the poles. Halocarbon effects do have a decay curve. That curve is measured in many decades. If halocarbon production were completely halted tomorrow, humans could count themselves lucky if concentration levels peaked in a decade or two. The probability that that will happen is low. Halocarbon production will not stop tomorrow. They are indispensible for too many processes which make a high technology life style possible. Human numbers are increasing exponentially. Furthermore, every effort is being made to globalize the convenient high technology lifestyle which will increase halocarbon release into the atmosphere. What does this mean? It does not mean that convenience is bad. Nor that high technology is bad. Nor that poor people shouldn't have cars, houses, TVs, refrigerators and toilets. Although that is how these sorts of statements in combination with the HOP word are routinely misinterpreted. What this does mean is simply that peak stratospheric halogen concentrations are not within sight. it means that the situation is bad. The situation will get worse. And it will be a long time before it gets better.
Ozone is needed in the stratosphere, especially at the poles. Even after peak halogen concentration levels have been achieved, ozone will not be restored suddenly. Not even. The radical chain mechanisms by which halogens break down ozone are catalytic in nature. An atomic chlorine radical, for example, breaks down thousands of ozone molecules. It doesn't stop until it bumps into nitrogen. Only a millionth part of the stratosphere is ozone. It's amazing that molecules measured in parts per million, billion, or trillion, should matter to such a big planet. If all the ozone in the atmosphere were spread out on the ground it would form a layer about as thin as a piece of canvas. That's not very much. The thinner the ozone layer in the stratosphere becomes, the higher the ratio of catalyst to substrate. Under conditions of excess catalyst, the equilibrium for halogen initiated radical chain reactions with ozone will lie far to the product side. As more and more halogen compounds reach the stratosphere, conditions of excess catalyst merely become conditions of super excees catalyst. Ozone is an unnatural or at least, unusual molecule. It is thermodynamically unstable. Ozone does not want to be ozone. molecular orbitals. Electron sharing by the three oxygens. negatively charged atomic chlorine or other halogen radical presents its electron to ozone, one oxygen accepts the electron very very readily. When ozone levels becme one tenth the starting level and the catalytic molecules' concentration is increased a thousand fold, the possibility of oxygen reforming the thermodynamically precarious triad, ozone, will become more and more remote. There is a feedback loop for increasing the ozone destruction and keeping it that way at the Arctic. Ozone, even at the minute parts per trillion levels found in the atmosphere above the Antarctic, had previously been adequate for warming, p 160 The ozone hole in the stratosphere above the Antarctic is a large and permanent reality now. It is not some hypothetical product of a gloomy doomy mind. It is real. It is tangible. It is measurable. And it has reduced the krill by 90%. that is very bad news. It is just one more prediction which has come true far sooner than conservatively estimated. Helped by the condition of apalling and unnecessary scientific illiteracy. |
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Largest-Ever Ozone Hole Observed Over Antarctica, 2001 |
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This little graph shows the increase in human numbers in the last few thousand years. In this case, the distance from 1,000 million to 7,600 million is 7.6 times the distance from zero to 1,000 million. 7.6 billion is demographers' mid projection. Graph curve is from Learning Tools, KQED TV, San Francisco, a PBS educational tv station. Overpopulation denialists right and left have asked about the source, so now you know. The leader of the Task Force on Amphibian Decline living in Britain objected calling the graph extreme and, "off the scale." But it isn't. It is simply demographer's mid projection. Usually when such a graph is drawn, a short time scale is used. But an evolutionarily significant time scale can more easily show relevant amounts of increase per unit of time. The distance from 1,000 million to 7,600 million is 7.6 times the distance from zero to 1,000 million. The graph is an accurate representation. |
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