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"His mind slid away into the labyrinthine world
of doublethink. To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete
truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously
two opinions which canceled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing
in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying
claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was
the guardian of democracy, to forget, whatever it was necessary to forget, then
to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then
promptly to forget it again, and above all, to apply the same process to the
process itself -- that was the ultimate subtlety: Consciously to induce
unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of
hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink'
involved the use of doublethink." -- George
Orwell, 1984
"Most of our intuitive responses have been developed in the
context of what are technically called first-order, negative-feedback loops.
Such a simple loop is goal-seeking and has only one important state variable.
For example, warming one's hands beside a stove can be approximated as a
first-order, negative-feedback loop in which the purpose of the process is to
obtain warmth without burning one's hands. The principal state variable of the
loop is the distance from the stove. If one is too close he burns his hands, if
too far away he receives little heat. The intuitive lesson is that cause and
effect are closely related in time and space. Temperature depends on the
distance from the stove. Too much or too little heat is clearly related to the
position of the hands. The relation of cause and effect is immediate and clear.
Similarly, the simple feedback loops that govern walking, driving a car, or
picking things up all train us to find cause and effect occurring at
approximately the same moment and location.
"But in complex systems cause and effect are often not
closely related in either time or space. The structure of a complex system is
not a simple feedback loop where one system state dominates the behavior. The
complex system has a multiplicity of interacting feedback loops. Its internal
rates of flow are controlled by nonlinear relationships. The complex system is
of high order, meaning that there are many system states (or levels). It
usually contains positive-feedback loops describing growth processes as well as
negative, goal-seeking loops. In the complex system the cause of a difficulty
may lie far back in time from the symptoms, or in a completely different and
remote part of the system. In fact, causes are usually found, not in prior
events, but in the structure and policies of the system."
THE NATURE OF RATIONALITY; Nozick, 1993.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0691020965/brainfood People
do not make inferences according to Bayes' Theorem, which is a formula used to
calculate the probability that a particular event will occur. This means that
we will intuitively select the wrong answer.
UNDERWEIGHTING OF BASE-RATE INFORMATION REFLECTS IMPORTANT
DIFFICULTIES PEOPLE HAVE WITH PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE; Hamm, 1994;
http://dieoff.com/page19.htm
THE EVOLUTION OF CONCIOUSNESS; Ornstein, 1991.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0671792245/brainfood
THE MORAL ANIMAL; Wright, 1994.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0679763996/brainfood
ENERGY AND THE ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABILITY; Peet,
1992 .
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559631600/brainfood |