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May 20th, 1998
Author : Joel Campbell
jcampbell@hotmail.com
School :
St. Joseph Scollard Hall
"If humanity fails to act, nature may end the population
explosion for us, in very unpleasant ways, well before 10 billion is reached"
(Ehrlich, 98). Population in our world is like a disease, its wide spread will
only bring devastation to a people who will eventually end up breeding
themselves into extinction. The world as we know it cannot sustain much more
population growth without increasing the instances of food shortages, lack of
resources, poverty, ozone depletion, deforestation, and desertification, to
name a few.
Who started it all?
Thomas Malthus was
among the first to discover the upward spiralling problem of population growth.
In his essay on "Principles of Population" Malthus clearly outlined the human
instinct to reproduce "They are all impelled by a powerful instinct to the
increase of their species, and this instinct is interrupted by no reasoning or
doubts about providing for their offspring" (Malthus, 4). Charles Darwin
reinforced this statement when he said:
There is no exception to the
rule that every organic being naturally increases at so high a rate, that, if
not destroyed, the earth would probably be covered by the progeny of a single
pair. Even slow breading, man has doubled in twenty-five years, and at this
rate, in less than a thousand years, there would literally not be standing room
for his progeny. (Darwin, Ehrlich Web Site).
This reiteration of the
human instinct to breed reinforces Malthus’ grim predictions for the
future, should population continue to increase unchecked. Malthus also clearly
stated that the demand for food by an enormous population can not be met in the
future because "Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.
Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio" (Malthus, 1). With food
growing at such a slow pace, we must attempt to find solutions to slow the
increasingly fast geometrical growth of population. This brings us back to the
opening quotation in which Ehrlich outlined the possibility of the intervention
of nature into the increasingly constricting problem of social and biophysical
carrying capacity.
Nature’s Intervention
"To
repeat the old saying, it’s the top of the ninth and humanity has been
hitting nature hard. But we must remember that nature hits last!" (Ehrlich,
225). The only way to examine the natural checks put on population is sift
through the past and pick out occurrences which had influences on population
growth.
10 000 BC End of the last Ice Age; humans lived as hunters
and gatherers.
1230 AD Leprosy imported to Europe by Crusaders
1347-1351 Black Death/Plague; 75 million people die
1495 Syphilis
epidemic spreads through Europe
1567 Two million South American
Indians die of typhoid
1750 Industrial Revolution begins in Europe
1796 Smallpox vaccination introduced
1800 Industrial Revolution
begins in US
1825 World population: 1 Billion
1827 Water
purification filter developed
1853 Hypodermic syringe created
1893 Automobile built
1927 Airplanes dust crops with insecticides
1943 Penicillin used against infection
1954 Vaccine for Polio
1978 Test-tube baby born
1996 World population: 5.8 Billion
(Ehrlich, Web Site)
Take note that, in this "Population Timeline"
(Ehrlich, Web Site) nature itself had kept population relatively low for over
ten thousand years with epidemics of Leprosy, Black Death, Syphilis, and
Typhoid. These epidemics kept population in check until the arrival of the
Industrial Revolution which brought the creation of many vaccines to fight
these diseases. As humans continued to create inventions that would make life
easier and raise the standard of living, they inadvertently increased the
average life expectancies and caused this massive surge in population.
The Population Explosion
By the beginning of the
industrial revolutions in Europe and the United States in late 18th century,
the total world population had just begun to barely attain 1 billion mark and
now, 150 years later, we are at 5.8 billion (Population Timeline) there must be
a reason for this incredible blast in growth. The term "Population Explosion"
was coined by Paul Ehrlich as a statement to describe the rapid spurt in the
population growth of the twentieth century (Ehrlich, Key Terms). By examining
the age structure of our current world, one can pick out many patterns which
help to explain the dramatic increase of population of the 20th century. One of
these points of interest is the fact that, generally, people are living much
longer. Improvements in health care and standard of living have increased the
life expectancy of the average human and has resulted in a healthier, more
"durable" people. "Life expectancy at birth increased by over 18 years for
women and by 13 years for men" (McKie, 65) With this increased life expectancy,
more people began to live through their childhood and into their childbearing
years. This had definite repercussions on the total world population. The birth
rate further exceeded the death rate resulting in an increased population
momentum which has not yet been stopped. Unfortunately, the cycle does not stop
here, with the increasing population momentum, there were many more child
births and a large part of the population was created. This part of the
population represented the young children who have not yet entered their
birthing years which brings us to yet another term, "Demographic Momentum".
Demographic Momentum is the ability for a population to continue expanding
despite reproductive rates being reduced. (Key Terms) Basically, this means
that even if extreme measures are taken to lower reproductive rates, the
population will still succeed in growing due to the "large proportion of our
population entering their reproductive years" (Key Terms).
Stopping
sex altogether would be an impossibility, therefore we must concentrate our
efforts on assisting couples in family planning in order to give them the power
to have as many or as little number of children as they want.
Birth
Control
Birth control will help humanity to equalize the rate of
natural increase in the world and slow the population explosion. If the World
could achieve widespread birth control, exponential growth could be slowed by
as much as 35% in select areas (Polestsky, 115). "If current demands were met,
there would be 35% fewer births in Latin America, 33% fewer in Asia, and 27%
fewer in Africa" (Polestsky, 115).
With all of these demands for
methods of contraception, one can only imagine the potential decrease of
population growth that could be achieved with adequate supplies. The Agency for
International Development (AID) has reported that it will "have more than 100
million fewer condoms than it needs to meet demand" (Polestsky 114). Birth
control and the education to prompt its use is greatly needed in developing
countries such as those in Africa which house some of the highest fertility
rates in the World. Unfortunately, contraceptive use is linked to people of
higher education which ironically, is the area where it is least needed. "In
Nigerian cities, contraceptive users were found to have at least a secondary
education and a white-collar income and employment" (Gordon 137). According to
the World Bank statistics, in Nigerian cities, only "27% of boys are enrolled
in secondary school but only 13% of girls" (Gordon 209). This correlation
between birth control and education does not give a very optimistic view of
Africa's future population. If only 27% of boys and 13% of girls are enrolled
in school, and increasingly large part of the population will live without the
education or personal resources to learn and practice methods of contraception,
whether they be natural, or modern.
In the World today, there is a
wide range of mixed views about contraceptives. Although methods of
contraception are limited by religious and cultural factors, they are still in
great demand around the world. With proper education and organization, birth
control could become the savior of humanity. For this to happen, we must have
religion on our side.
Religious Factors
Presently,
other than education, the main thing preventing these widespread use of
contraceptives is religion. In fact, religion and its affects on people's lives
could be considered as one of the leading factors contributing to the world's
population. China is a prime example of the influence of religious beliefs on
population growth.
The Years of the Dragon, including 1976 and 1988,
are the years of the Chinese zodiac considered particularly favourable for
having children. As the fertility of the Chinese and peninsular Malaysia
declined from 1960 to 1990, the level of fertility (in China) spiked in 1976
and 1988 while the fertility of the Malay population continued its slower
decline in those years.(Cohen 288)
The Chinese religion single
handedly caused an increase in population. This observation proves that
religion has a strong influence on fertility because the Years of the Dragon do
not involve political or economic factors that would otherwise affect
population growth (Cohen 288). Therefore, in this case religion was the only
factor acting on the population and it showed considerable increase.
This religious opposition towards fertility control by certain churches greatly
influences its follower's attitudes about contraception. In an industrialized
overcrowded era, the idea of God being responsible for choosing the number of
children a couple will have is ridiculously out of date. The Catholic position
is described as inhumane policies that, all over the world, force Catholics to
choose between what their intelligence and moral sense tell them a doctrine
which is dangerously outmoded. (Ehrlich, 241-242).
Although, the
Catholic Church is not alone in its objection to contraception and family
planning, "The Hutterites, the Amish and some Orthodox Jewish groups are
similarly opposed" (Cohen, 288). it is definitely the group which is most
discussed because of its wide range of followers throughout the world. In
Canada, for example, Catholicism represents just under half the total
population at over 12 million followers. (Statistics Canada, Catalogue no.
93-319-XPB)
In a letter written to the Pope, catholic botanist, John
Thomas wrote that "Anyone working to prevent bringing human birth rates down is
simply working to increase death rates" (Ehrlich 242). He makes reference to
statements made in the Reaffirmation of Humanae Vitae in which the catholic
church reaffirmed its objection to unnatural contraception. Thomas is a
reputable professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Stanford
University. He states that "For the good of humanity and the future of our
church, I urge you to reconsider your position on this issue, and get the
church back on the side of humanity instead of dogma" (Ehrlich 242). This very
bold statement shows the extreme frustration of many Catholics, whose natural
instinct is to use modern birth control in order to prevent unwanted children
from being born.
By preventing unwanted child births, couples could
keep the population at a minimum growth rate. "The UN has calculated that if
all women who said they wanted no more children were able to stop childbearing,
the numbers would be reduced by 35% in Latin America, 33% in Asia, and 27% in
Africa" (Polestsky, 115).and are helping to ensure that there will still be
resources such as food left for their children and grand children.
Food
Populations' effect on food is like a
double-edged sword. "Soaring population now has a dual effect on food balance:
it increases demand as it degrades the agricultural resource base" (McCuen 83).
Without food, humanity cannot survive and shortages just might end up being
that "natural" check that Ehrlich speaks of.
The amount of food
available restrains the size of any animal population, unless space, disease,
predators, or some other factor sets lower limits. Homo sapiens is no exception
to that rule, and at the moment it seems likely that food will be our limiting
resource (Ehrlich 66).
As population increases, there is a greater
demand for food and less area to grow it on. "Each year farmers must feed 90
million more people using 25 billion tons less topsoil" (Ehrlich 242). As
Malthus stated in his first postulate "food is necessary to the existence of
man" (Malthus, 1)he was implying that, obviously, without food, life couldn't
exist. Since subsistence only increases arithmetically (as mentioned before) it
is obvious that the future does not look bright for the survival of
humankind.
The United Nations Population Fund announced that UN
demographers have revised their earlier projections of world population
upward.... Instead of leveling off at 10 billion, world population will settle
at 14 billion. For a world that cannot adequately feed 5.2 billion inhabitants
today, this comes as sobering news (McCuen 83).
Although the world's
food supply is one of its most important resources, it's actually only one of
many resources which needs attention and protection from the ticking population
bomb.
Destruction of Natural Resources
In the world
today, resources are a major source of profit and are used until they are
exhausted, then, society moves on to another. "People a decade hence will be
dealing with an entirely new set of resources" (Ehrlich 165). This misuse of
resources is partly due to a belief that the availability of resources is
unlimited.
This behavior is based in part on the first axiom of
mainstream economics: since an infinite array of resources is believed to
exist, once one resource has been destroyed there will always be another that
can profitably be exploited to extinction, then another, and another, and
another (Ehrlich 165).
Many economists believe that resources are
infinite and that humans will always find a way to make use of what they have
to survive. Among these uninformed economists is Julian Simon.
It is
amazing but true that a resource shortages resulting from population or income
growth usually leave us better of than if the shortage had ever arisen. If
fire-wood had not become scarce in 17th century England, coal would not have
been developed. If coal and whale oil shortages hadn’t loomed, oil wells
would not have been dug (Simon, 24).
Just because "Simon Says",
doesn’t mean it true. The growing scarcity of these finite resources poses
an economic problem to rapidly growing populations. Not to mention the massive
effects that Simon’s mentioned resources such as coal and oil have on the
environment. Human "wants" are unlimited and with scarce amounts of resources
in their areas, people such as North Americans look to other countries from
which they can import the goods that they need. As Simon says, this trade is
good for the economy, but it is detrimental to the earth's resources. The
importing of goods from third world countries into place such as North America
creates a very unequal distribution of goods and causes suffering for
developing countries. Simon’s statement that "raw material have been
getting less scarce instead of more scarce throughout history" (Simon, 24) is
plainly wrong. Throughout history, the improving development of resources has
made them more available but has not increased the actual amount. "When
something grows it gets bigger. When something develops it gets different. The
earth ecosystem develops (evolves), but does not grow." (Daly, 1). This shows
that finite resources are indeed limited and once exhausted, cannot be
replaced.
Solutions
There have been many attempts to
slow population growth but without the cooperation of the whole world, most
plans are destined to fail. "Internationally, the Chinese oppose outside
interference with their own country’s - or with any other country’s -
population growth" (SIRS) and although they now have a control system in place,
originally they had found power in numbers and had indulged themselves in high
growth rates.
In an overpopulated world no country can have the right
to indulge itself in a high growth rate. Since the human population of the
world is truly a single interdependent community, such behavior by any country
could reasonably be regarded as irresponsible and a threat to all the rest
(Ehrlich 1970, 247)
This was the belief in the 1970’s, but now,
China has felt the repercussions of its tremendously high population and has
had to put a one-child policy into place in order to slow and eventually halt
it’s growth. They now believe that "man must control nature, and he must
also control his numbers" (Ehrlich, 205) By putting this program in place, they
can control their numbers and actually lower their population by turning two
people (the initial couple) into one (the child). The Chinese program has been
dubbed the "most successful population control program in the world" (Ehrlich
205). In contrast, Canada has begun to reach a stable population with the
natural increasing number of women in the workforce from 41% in 1975 to 53% in
1990 (McKie, 100). This has increased the instances of couples without children
or with merely one child. Whatever the method may be, slowing the world
population growth is a long process which will require the cooperation of all.
Many organizations have been set up such as ZPG (Zero Population Growth), the
Unite Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), and the World Bank but
for these organizations to be successful, they must work together and not only
represent the interests of certain countries. Roy Calne has said that
population control is the most urgent task for the United Nations.
If
only there could be established a scientific division of the United Nations,
headed by a scientist with the administrative capacity of Lee Kuan Yew, to use
scientific methods to work out means of controlling the growth of population,
to stop the rape of the earth and minimize the dangers of a nuclear war! It
would need to be a non-political, non-religious body, similar to the concept of
the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences, able to speak the truth
rather than indulge in the lies of politically correct statements or the
prevarication’s of politicians. (Calne, 119)
This non-political,
non-religious body would not be affected by the religious and economic factors
as mentioned before. Unlike Simon, he or she would make decisions in the
interest of money and would have to represent the interest of humanity rather
than specific countries.
Dinosaurs dominated the earth well before
humanity and survived over 150 million years. (Bookshelf 96-97) Human, on the
other hand, have been around for about 3 million years (Bookshelf 96-97).
Nature, destroyed them, are we next? Something must be done soon because
remember "Nature bats last!" (Ehrlich 225)
Bibliography
Calne, Roy. Too Many People: A
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It. London: Calder Publications Limited. 1994.
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Norton & Company. 1995.
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http://www.pbs.org/kqed/population_bomb/time.html
The
Population Bomb: Learning Tools. Online. Internet. 15 Apr. 1998. Available
http://www.pbs.org/kqed/population_bomb/teacher.html
"There's a good chance the Population Bomb site will be
retired shortly after the end of April 2002, when all usage rights for the
program expire."
Red Dana
Manager, KQED TV9 & DT30 Viewer
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