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ENERGY SOURCES
Energy is the capacity to do work
(no energy = no work).
By definition, energy "sources" must produce more energy
than they consume, otherwise they are called "sinks" (this is known as the "net
energy" principle).
Moreover, physical constraints limit how "fast" energy can
be produced from any natural resource (the "peak" principle). One can only
extract it at a certain rate, the rate peaks, and as the source empties, the
rate falls off.
THE GLOBAL OIL "PEAK"
Published petroleum experts Colin
Campbell, Jean Laherrère, Brian Fleay, and Roger Blanchard all expect a
"peak" in "conventional oil" around 2005. Moreover, the CEOs of Agip (Italian
oil company) and Arco have both published estimates of peak in 2005. So it
seems like a reliable estimate.
Campbell and Blanchard say that Norwegian production (the
second largest export) is at "peak" now and set to enter long-term decline.
Colombia and Venezuela are apparently well past their peaks and now in
long-term decline. Mexico will probably peak this year at the midpoint of
depletion.
The latest estimates by country can be found at
http://dieoff.com/campbell.htm --
http://dieoff.com/campbell.pdf --
http://dieoff.com/campbell.xls
THE US NATURAL GAS "CLIFF"
Gas production is better
described as a "plateau" followed by a "cliff" due to the high mobility and
recovery of gas. Whereas oil declines slowly as it moves through the porespace
of the rocks under declining pressure, the decline of gas is a cliff -- not a
slope. The gas market gives no warning of the cliff because it is no more
expensive to produce the last cubic foot than the first.
US gas production is at or near its "cliff" now. Canada
currently makes up about 13% of the U.S. gas supply -- and Canada may already
be past its cliff in natural gas production.
Canadians export most gas to the US under short-term
contracts. Moreover, a vague law allows them to rein in the petroleum trade
whenever it appears to be in their interest (and making the US pay dearly was
in their interest in the late 70s).
http://www.qv3.com/policypete/policypete.htm
Campbell says that it is not practical to make up the US gas
shortfall by shipping it in from the Middle East. However, the construction of
a new gas line to Alaska and the Canadian arctic where there probably are large
untapped deposits could temporarily mitigate the US gas cliff.
CANADIAN OIL SANDS (BITUMEN)
The Alberta Energy and
Utilities Board estimates that production from Canada's oil sands will be
extremely slow (100 to 200 years for all of it). It is also worth noting that
the processing of heavy oil and bitumen in Canada has used cheap, stranded gas.
This gas is probably not going to be stranded or cheap much longer, which will
reduce the economics of the heavy oil and bitumen extraction.
US COAL
US coal is expected to become an energy "sink"
-- not worth digging out of the ground -- by 2040.
OCEANIC HYDRATES
Laherrère has provided a new
paper that shows that there is no evidence from all the worldwide research and
extensive coring for any massive hydrate deposits.
http://dieoff.com/page192.htm
POSITIVE FEEDBACKS -- WITH NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES
The
rising energy costs (increasing extraction effort) and rising economic costs of
oil set up a positive feedback loop: since oil is used directly or indirectly
in everything, as the costs of oil increase, the costs of everything else
increase too -- including other forms of energy. For example, oil provides
about 50% of the fuel used in coal extraction.
OTHER ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
H.T. Odum's eMergy
calculations show that the only other forms of energy that can survive the
exhaustion of fossil fuel are biomass (burning wood, animal dung, or peat),
hydroelectric, geothermal in volcanic areas, and some wind electrical
generation. Nuclear power could be viable if one could overcome the shortage of
fuel. No other alternatives (e.g., photovoltaics) produce a large enough net
eMergy to be worth pursuing.
If you are interested in more specific details, read the
messages at
http://www.egroups.com/messages/energyresources
or write to me at
mailto:j@qmail.com
A LETHAL EDUCATION
Economic students are taught that
banks "create" money every time they make a loan, and that the economy is
powered by money instead of energy. The juxtaposition of these two data (the
first is true, the second is false) leads even Nobel Prize-winning economists
to conclude they have discovered a perpetual-motion machine!
No person has had a greater influence on the thinking of
experts who have become government regulators of the world's oil and gas
industries than economist Morris Adelman: "There are plenty of fossil fuels and
no limit to potential electrical capacity. It is all a matter of money."
But Adelman -- and every government regulator he has ever
influenced -- is wrong. It is a matter of energy! (The only source of energy in
money is the medium itself, and a $100 bill contains no more energy than a $10
bill.)
ENERGY LAWS: PERPETUAL MOTION IS IMPOSSIBLE Although
economists treat energy just like any other resource, it is not like any other
resource. Available energy is the prerequisite for all other resources.
Moreover, universal energy laws tell us that the economist's perpetual-motion
machine is impossible.
To lift 15 kg of oil 5 meters out of the ground
requires 735 joules of energy just to overcome gravity -- and the higher the
lift, the greater the energy requirements. The most concentrated and most
accessible oil is produced first; thereafter, more and more energy is required
to find and produce oil. At some point, more energy is spent finding and
producing oil than the energy recovered. Thus, Adelman is wrong: it is not all
a matter of money.
Neither capital nor labor nor technology can "create"
energy (the first law of thermodynamics). Instead, available energy must be
spent to transform existing matter (e.g. oil), or to divert an existing energy
flow (e.g., wind) into more available energy. The engines that actually do the
work in our economy (so-called "heat engines"; e.g., diesel engines) waste 50
percent of the energy contained in their fuel (the second law). Thus, Adelman
is wrong again: there is a physical limit to potential electrical capacity.
Economists everywhere are wrong: perpetual economic motion is impossible!
Nearly everyone is wrong.
Nearly everyone in the world
(all governments, and all but a handful of scientists, etc.) has accepted the
economists' perpetual-motion machine. Even the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy has no idea how much energy
is required to produce energy ("net energy"). Nor does the EIA have any idea
how fast energy can be produced ("peak")!
But even a child can understand that machines do not run on
money -- they run on energy (daddy's car needs gas) -- and available energy is
a prerequisite for producing more energy. Once the truth is told, no one will
ever believe that the energy experts in the Clinton Administration were just
too stupid to see it coming; too stupid understand these simple energy
principles that can be taught to a child...
SURPRISE.
The sudden -- and surprising -- end of the
fossil fuel age will stun everyone -- and kill billions. Once the truth is told
about gas and oil (it's just a matter of time), your life will change forever.
Envision a world where freezing, starving people burn
everything combustible -- everything from forests (releasing CO2; destroying
topsoil and species); to garbage dumps (releasing dioxins, PCBs, and heavy
metals); to people (by waging nuclear, biological, chemical, and conventional
war); and you have seen the future.
Envision a world utterly destroyed by a lethal
education.
Jay - www.dieoff.org |
