John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy (1848)
"There is room in the world, no doubt, and even in old countries, for a great increase in population, supposing the arts of life to go on improving, and capital to increase. But even if innocuous, I confess I see very little reason for desiring it. The density of population necessary to enable mankind to obtain, in the greatest degree, all the advantages both of cooperation and of social intercourse, has, in all the most populous countries, been attained. A population, may be too crowded, though all be amply supplied with food and raiment. It is not good for man to be kept perforce at all times in the presence of his species. A world from which solitude is extirpated, is a very poor ideal. Solitude, in the sense of being often alone, is essential to any depth of meditation or of character, and solitude in the presence of natural beauty and grandeur, is the cradle of thoughts and aspirations which are not only good for the individual, but which society could ill do without. Nor is there much satisfaction in contemplating the world with nothing left to the spontaneous activity of nature; with every rood of land brought into cultivation, which is capable of growing food for human beings; every flowery waste or natural pasture ploughed up, all quadrupeds or birds which are not domesticated for man's use exterminated as his rivals for food, every hedgerow or superfluous tree rooted out, and scarcely a place left where a wild shrub or flower could grow without being eradicated as a weed in the name of improved agriculture. If the earth must lose that great portion of its pleasantness which it owes to things that the unlimited increase of wealth and population would extirpate from it, for the mere purpose of enabling it to support a larger but not a better or a happier population, I sincerely hope, for the sake of posterity, that they will content to be stationary, long before necessity compels them to it."

"It is scarcely necessary to remark that a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the Art of Living, and much more likelihood of its being improved, when minds ceased to be engrossed by the art of getting on. Even the industrial arts might be as earnestly and as successfully cultivated, with this sole difference, that instead of serving no purpose but the increase of wealth, industrial improvements would produce their legitimate effect, that of abridging labour. ... Only when, in addition to just institutions, the increase of mankind shall be under the deliberate guidance of judicious foresight, can the conquests made from the powers of nature by the intellect and energy of scientific discoverers, become the common property of the species, and the means of improving and elevating the universal lot."
John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy (1848)
Excerpted from Pimentel and Pimentel, Food, Energy and Society.

John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy (1848), for perspective, in the census subsequent to this statement, the combined population of England, Wales and Scotland in 1851 was 21 million, the population of the United States in 1850 was 23 million. The world's population in 1848 was just one billion, less than one- fifth of its present size.

David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel,
Food, Energy, and Society (2nd ed., 1996), p 296.
"Above all else humans must control their numbers. This task is probably the most difficult one facing all of us today. If birth rates are to decline on a massive scale, parents must understand that having fewer children is in their own and their children's interest. What humans choose to do in the coming two decades will determine the kind of world the next generation will live in. Ultimately, it is up to each individual to reduce his or her reproductive rate. Clearly, if humans do not control their numbers, nature will do so through poverty, disease and starvation."

The Future
When all the world's resources must be divided among an increasing number of people, each one has a smaller share, until there are insufficient amounts to go around.
At this point it is relevant to reconsider the biological law Malthus proposed: First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly at its present state.... Assuming then my postula are granted, I say that the power of population is definitely greater than the power of the earth to produce sustenance for man." Malthus may not have been thinking about this aspect, but it is true that food production increases linearly, whereas the human population increases geometrically. Therefore, there is no biophysical way for food production to increase and stay with the growth of the human population. Even if population increase were not geometric, there are limits to the earth's carrying capacity.

Although science and technology will help alleviate some of the future shortages, they cannot solve all the problems the world faces today. Science has been unable to solve many of the world's problems during the past 50 years, and with fewer resources that must be shared with more people we have no reason to expect that biophysical limits can be overcome. For example, more, larger, and faster fishing vessels have not increased fish production; on the contrary, it is declining. Likewise, water flowing in the Colorado River now ceases to reach the Sea of Cortes. There is no technology that can double the flow of the Colorado and/or increase rainfall.

David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel,
"We remain optimists, for we see some signs that people are beginning to understand that resources are not unlimited and that a balance must be achieved between basic needs of the human population and environmental resources, many of which are finite. This is the time to take action."

Land, Energy and Water: The Constraints Governing Ideal U.S. Population Size by David and Marcia Pimentel January, 1995,
Excerpts:

Prosperity and Population
"If the United States were to move to a solar energy-based economy and become self-sustainable, what would be our options and levels of prosperity? With a self-sustaining solar energy system replacing our current dependence on fossil energy, the energy availability would be one-fifth to one-half the current level. Then if the U.S. population remained at its present level of 246 million, a significant reduction in our current standard of living would follow. This would occur even if all the energy conservation measures known today were adopted."

"If, however, the U.S. population wishes to continue its current high level of energy use and standard of living and prosperity, then its ideal population should be targeted at 40-100 million people. With sound energy conservation practices and a drastic reduction of energy use per capita to less than one-half current usage, it might be possible to support the current population. One projection suggests a significantly lower population level and the other a dramatic reduction in the standard of living. On the positive side, however, we do have sufficient fossil energy, especially coal, to help us make the needed transition in energy resources and population numbers over the next century, if we can manage the environmental impacts."

Conclusion:
"At present levels of fertility and migration, the U.S. population will rise one-third by 2080; A modest increase in fertility could drive it past a half billion. We could be heading eventually toward population densities like those in present-day China. Comparisons to China clearly emphasize why the United States will be unable to maintain its current level of prosperity and high standard of living, which is based on its available land, water, energy, and biological resources. We know that supplies of fossil energy, a nonrenewable resource, are being rapidly depleted. In just a few years, most U.S. oil resources will be consumed. Fortunately, natural gas reserves will last for nearly 50 years while coal reserves will carry us beyond the next century."

"Therefore, we must start now to make the slow transition from our dependence on fossil fuels to development of solar energy power as our major energy resource. For the United States to be self-sustaining in solar energy, given our land, water, and biological resources, our population should be less than 100 million-significantly less than the current level of 246 million. However, with a drastic reduction in standard of living, the current population level might be sustained. With planning and determination, the United States could gradually reduce its numbers to more manageable levels."

"The available supply of fossil fuels, especially coal, will provide the time we need to make the necessary adjustments involving new solar energy technologies and agricultural practices. Coupled with this, Americans will have time to change their behavior and respect for natural resources and the environment."

"With a population of 40 to 100 million, the United States could become self-sustaining on solar energy while maintaining a quality environment, provided that sound energy conservation and environmental policies were in effect to preserve soil, water, air, and biological resources that sustain life. With these far-reaching changes, we feel confident that future generations of Americans would be able to enjoy prosperity and have a high standard of living. Starting to deal with the future before it reaches crisis level is the only way we will be able to avert real tragedy for our children's children. By education, fair population control, sound resource policies, the support of scientific research, and all people working together, Americans will be able to face the future with optimism and pride."

Full text can be read at:
www.npg.org/forum_series/land_energy%26water.htm

Solar + Fuel Cells = ?

We were thinking about putting solar cells together with very efficient fuel cells. It seemed like a clever idea. So we asked the Big Kahuna, Jay Hanson. He must have been in a really rotten mood, however.

Dear Jay;
We thought that once solar cells are fabricated, they could be used to create electrical energy forever. Then they would replace the energy it took to produce them, right? Then also the solar cells and / or some additional techniques could be used the electrolyse water to get the hydrogen for fuel cells. That's pretty hunky dory, isn't it? What could be more hunky-dory than that?

The Big Kahuna replied:
"No. That's a popular misconception. The only valid studies that have been done (Odum and his students) show that solar cells can not support themselves. In other words, when global oil and North American gas "peak" by the end of this decade, this civilization comes to a violent, radioactive end. That's why I don't worry about biodiversity. There won't be any "versity" at all in a radioactive mushroom cloud."
. -- Jay

Why so glum, Jay? Look, here's the multipart solution. Admittedly it's far fetched. But it is nonetheless possible. Some in Japan are already thinking in these terms.
1.)   Media tells the truth about energy and overpopulation.
2.)   Population goes down while substantive energy conservation is instituted. Utterance of obfuscatory remarks, jingoism, and platitudes are made crimes subject to severe punishment.
3.)   Available dwindling energy sources, including fission, are redirected and used to produce solar and hydrogen energy infrastructure. And that infrastructure is used as the interim solution for something else which isn't as yet on the drawing board.
4.)    Institutions and social modes of human behavior are given time to adapt themselves to new exigencies.

Solar and hydrogen may not strictly pencil out. And fission fuel won't last forever. But with a population of four billion Homo sapiens var. colossus or hopefully less, this approach is not only possible, it is do-able. Within a certain time frame there is a window of opportunity. It beats the heck out of Dr. StrangeLove, doesn't it?

The biggest IF humanity has ever faced. In fact the biggest IF humanity could ever concieve.

Possible? Possible schmossible. Everything depends on plutocratic dog-waggers. IF they really want Armageddon, they will make it happen by doing nothing. Make that continuing to do nothing. The situation has been well understood for quite some time, many decades. The status quo has humanity on a collision course with Armageddon. All they have to do is to give instructions to the Media to refrain from initiating forward progress by telling the truth. The beautiful thing about the Media is that it follows its directives silently, imperceptibly. The beautiful thing about a democracy is that it can very easily be made to believe it is, in fact, a democracy.
Which will it be? Armageddon or Brave New World? When will we know? When we hear the Media telling the truth, we will know that the decision has been made to choose a Brave New World. Until we hear the truth in the Media, the status quo has humanity on a collision course with Armageddon.
The Media Is The Message.

Click to see how a Chimp views the state of the Media.

Or the power of the Media.

HOP Refs, links and sources www.popplanet.org

Carrying Capacity Network. 2000 P St. NW, Suite 240, Washington, DC 20036. 1-800-466-4866. CCN@igc.apc.org.

US Sustainable Population Policy Project: www.iti.com/iti/uss3p/

Negative Population Growth,.npg.org, PO Box 1206, Teaneck, NJ 07666. 201-837-3555. npg@npg.org

New Hampshire Citizens for Sustainable Population. Founded in 1991 to create a coalition to build support for individual action and state and federal policies aimed at stopping population growth and ultimately reducing population levels nationally and globally. A group of individuals representing conservation, education, social welfare, religions, and consumers
http://www.homestead.com/SustainablePopulationNH/NHSUSPOP.html

KZPG Population News Network The world's most advanced discussion forum dedicated to stopping population growth.

New Hampshire Agriculture In The Classroom: Resource Guide For Teachers On The Internet. THE FOOD EQUATION. A series of three 25 minute videos and supporting classroom material. Questions for students to explore include: With a predicted doubling of the world population by the year 2050, will people be able to meet their most basic need: food? http://pubpages.unh.edu/~pcj/aitc.html. Or, call 603 224 1934.

Roy Beck Web Page.
http://www.numbersusa.com/

cyberus.ca/choose.sustain/Popula.html

Books