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What has happened to the PV miracle since 1964?

What and where is the Livermore Lawrence Radiation Lab?
If one grew up in Livermore, California, in the sixties, one knows the answer to those questions. Just about everyone in the surrounding subdivisions were scientists working at the LLRL. 1964 was when solar electrical energy started to become well known in Livermore. There was a Dr. Wells whose son attended Joe Mitchell junior high school. Dr. Wells was a scientist, but he was a very practical guy. He had the best looking wife of anybody in town. He built his own things, including an airplane, a two seater glider, and electronics stuff. He didn't joke about physics like some of the other scientists, you know, like, "What would you get if you twisted an electron into the shape of a pretzel?" That kind of stuff. His son, Sandy, turned out quite a bit like him.
Anyway one day in 1964, during the year we were in the seventh grade, Sandy comes up and asks to go in halves on a science fair project. So we said no we already had a project going. So he says that it's ok to have two projects and he really needs someone to split the cost of his project. So you're thinking a) how much is he going to need? and b) what kind of contraption does he have in mind?
Turns out he wanted twenty dollars. He was going to buy some solar cell chips from Edmund Scientific Company by mail order. Not the grab bag imperfects but, the ones with rated wattage. He showed the PV cells in the catalog. Ok, it sounded interesting. But what do we do with them? His dad had some books which Sandy had been reading and he thought we would make a diagram-slash-demonstration exhibit. Oh and one more thing, we'd need to use slot cars and track. Now you see the real deal. Sandy didn't have a slot car set and always came over to borrow one. Anyway, we got the diagrams made and they looked really sharp. And we had three books which we bookmarked with the best pages. We had a really high powered sunlamp laying around so we decided to use that for the "photon source." The solar cells came in the mail while there was still plenty of time, which was lucky because in those days the mail could take weeks. And without the solar cells, well you've got no science fair project. So he calls up and says he's coming over and we can set it up. We clamped the lamp on a stand and put the track together. It had to be in a circle because a) we only had one lamp and b) the science fair rules specified the area of the exhibit.
Sandy was an expert with a solder iron so we had not trouble there.
We got everything set up and switched on the lamp and well, and nothing.
The darn things wouldn't budge. Sandy had thought there would be plenty of juice for the electric motors to run on. We knew Ohm's Law but at that time. We had just used the rated output of the cells for an initial calculation and that had compared favorably enough for us to think it should have worked. But when the rubber hit the road, nothing moved. We tinkered around. We took the car body off the chassis to try to lose some weight. Nothing. We took the motors out and just hooked them up directly to the solar cell lead wires. Nothing. We soldered the leads in case there was too much resistance from a bad connection. Nothing.
So was that the end of the project? Nope. We had some dinky little HO slot cars. They were about one eighth the size of the regular slot cars. Sandy says hey let's try that. We didn't take the HO cars apart because we couldn't have reassembled them. To make a short story, Sandy soldered the leads to the motor and held it up to the lamp and the wheels started turning around furiously. Oh yeah! It even worked when we set the cars down on the track and put the lamp a few feet above the circle so that all areas got the same amount of light. The smaller HO slot cars zoomed around and around the track.
We remember we got a prize of some kind for that. But more importantly, a lot of people whose parents worked at the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory remembered that exhibit. It was the first time many Livermore Californians had ever heard of SOLAR CELLS and electricity from sunlight.

That science fair was in 1964. A long long time ago.

What's happened to PV since 1964??? At best it could be characterized as a waste of time. A more accurate characterization though, would be that the time hasn't been wasted, it's been used quite effectively, but used effectively by the wrong parties for the wrong purposes.

What is happenning presently?

Richard Duncan says all it takes at this time is for a critical mass to "intuit what is happening."
buddycom.com/ecol/Brainfood/duncanoil.html

After almost forty years maybe there is a need to clarify the potential for renewables. Maybe there is a need to separate the hype and BS from reality. Maybe there is a need to tell others from a small website exactly what's going on whether it's accepted or not. At least it gives satisfaction that the Rain Forest Guy told you so... IF there is still time.
geocities.com/combusem
Maybe there's a need to say hey folks wake up the propaganda machine is leading / has led us by the nose to Voltaire's "best of all possible worlds." A dream come true for both the Papacy and Mr. Undershaft.
There's a chance for a historic opportunity as Bush had repeated again and again while he was here in Japan. The power elite are so bold, so confident. All one needs to do is read the news, listen to their spokespersons. All options are on the table. Except one. And that missing option is a way out. Is there truth? Yes. And the power elite are the only ones who know it completely.
We are facing an energy precipice. One which has been obviously well planned.
We are facing an overpopulation precipice. One which has been obviously well orchestrated.
There exists a overwhelmingly vast superiority in military technology. Mass destruction Schmass destruction, indeed.
There is as complete a lack of scientific literacy as there is a will to question misinformation or motives.
The plutocratic wirepullers know absolutely everything necessary in complete detail, the rest fritter away time with trivial speculations and irrelevant repetitive arguments, while the most believe the important condition is that it must appear that nothing is known for sure amid an ocean of uncertainties. You'd have to rate that belief, that social construction/distortion of reality, a complete success.
Having fulfilled biblical prophesy any world dominating regime capable of pulling it off would effectively control the minds, the morality, and the social construction of reality. FOREVER.
The power elite are in control of the one thing which can not be controlled by any of us.
The signal to begin. Begin what? The cutoff of the energy flow while the world is still dependant upon fossil fuels.

The Yahoo! energyresources group?
Jay Hanson had recommended it to answer energy resource questions.
Question 1: How much total electrical energy the USA uses per annum. Question 2: An energy conversion factor to convert Quads to other forms of energy, in particular electrical forms. Why? The energy currently utilized from solar and wind is trivial. Yet some say the potential is huge, no pun intended. Independent calculations can show one what is what if King George tries to keep it from being known.

Fuel Energy content in British Thermal Units (Btu), Short ton of coal, 21,400,000, Barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil, 5,800,000, Cubic foot of natural gas, 1,027, Kilowatt hour of electricity, 3,412
http://en-env.llnl.gov/flow/
http://en-env.llnl.gov/flow/dataused.html
The pdf document which a Randy Udall suggested had the energy flow chart from LLRL. That had been objective number one, to find the total electrical energy used in the USA each year from a reliable source. The LLRL is both as reliable and as politicized as ever because you know what? Even nationalist zealots need the facts. Objective number two had been to find some conversion factors to convert the various forms of energy into values which one could compare apples to apples with. The links in the Udall doc led to the LLRL site and the energy conversion factors they had used. Those specific conversion factors were more relevant than some of the ones found elsewhere. Still pending: The total amount of solar energy generated and the total amount of wind energy generated each year. Thus the course of the growth can be followed from their pathetically miniscule relative amounts to something more promising. By whom? By anyone who can multiply and divide.

So BTW,
What do you get if you twist an electron into a pretzel?
A) a really small pretzel.
B) a negatively charged pretzel
C) We give up, what do you get?
D) Nothing, silly you can't twist an electron into a pretzel.

PV, Photovoltaic, a more benign view. Just corporate greed?:
This form of energy could be widely used right now if only the established power companies did not wield so much power in the halls of congress among the powers that be. Those companies and their allies in congress have a vested interest in delaying as long as possible, the inevitable use of solar power. They have invested a lot in the necessary infrastructures for the extraction, refinement, transportation, and distribution of their product. They have tapped into the fossil fuels beneath the surface of our earth and they want to sit on it for as long as they can and let the profits flow into their bank accounts. They will continue to resist vigorously and with continued success, the switch over to solar energy precisely because they are supported by the consumers of their product who collectively demand that they do so.

The two main flimsy excuses you have heard for too long are :
1) PV technology is not ready yet.
2) The cost per kW for PV is too high.

These rationalizations have traditionally been accepted implicitly as a justification for complacency. For several years now, the efficiency of photovoltaic cells has been between 15% and 20%. That is sufficient for a level of electrical energy production which would support the same style of living in the developed nations that people have been accustomed to expect as normal if the scale were ramped up... So the technology is and has been ready. But, because the efforts to encourage the necessary increase in scale of production of photovoltaics have been continually and successfully thwarted, the cost per kilowatt remains higher than for fossil fuels.

When wide areas of arid land are used to collect the sun's energy, especially near oceans, seas and other bodies of water, we will split water molecules into diatomic oxygen and hydrogen molecules for use as energy. In the absence of solar and wind power, we can not really use electric engines for automobiles unless we are willing to accept a net increase in overall output of carbon dioxide, or accept a much wider use of nuclear energy and at the same time accept lower performance of our vehicles. Since these three suppositions are false, that leaves us with using solar panels to split water for the production of hydrogen as the eventual solution to the problem of what we will use as the energy source for our vehicles and for other energy needs. We can not eliminate vehicles or the need to produce vast amounts of electrical energy but, we could stop increasing the number of vehicles by lowering our population, in both the rich and the poor countries. The latter is an eventual absolute necessity. There is a finite limit which will be reached not within the next one hundred years, but within our own lifetime. In order not to jeapardize their careers or personal futures by being labeled alarmists, most ecologists and demographers have been unrealistically generous and intentionally vague in their predictions about our future. Dr. Paul Ehrlich characterizes as, "preposterous", the blind conviction that the earth could maintain a population of ten billion. The only question is how soon the regulation of our numbers will begin and whether the regulation of our numbers shall be responsible and voluntary or will be by more violent and tragic means such as war and famine. By now everybody is well aware of this. Everybody.

The term sustainable is used often. Neither the hackneyed term sustainable nor the prefix eco- when used in any particular context renders a concept either sustainable or ecologically sound, although the power of these linguistic devices is almost universally presumed to have just such magical proportions.

Everyone has heard of Bernard Shaw, explainer of reality and spokesperson of the power elite. The power elite are not the merely super rich, but the true power elite, the families who control the manufacture of arms and munitions. Although his classic play, Major Barbara, and the character of Undershaft shall remain forever etched in the minds of the British royal family with whom Bernard Shaw had had a very close personal relationship, and in the minds of a handful of professors of English literature, few are the number of people who remember Undershaft. Fewer remember Undershaft's reincarnation as Daddy Warbucks. Old folks can remember a syndicated political newspaper cartoon series called Orphan Annie. That cartoon series was a means by which the newspaper segment of the media elite trivialized the role of the power elite in the minds of the working classes. Daddy Warbucks could be likened to Apophis, destroyed every morning at dawn by Ra as he delivered the morning newspaper. After several decades of Daddy Warbucks everyone had become inured to the plutocratic wirepulling which controlled wars at various locations around the globe. Attention attenuation pure and simple.

It is in this almost universal state of ignorance of the role played by Undershaft that the term sustainable is employed. Ignoring the huge profits to be made from wars, those who are not members of the power elite feel a strong need to decasualize the spectre of war. Bruce Springsteen, a famous balladeer for the working class seems resolutely convinced that war is good for, "absolutely nothin'." A big war every thirty years or so may be de rigueur for the human race- and for the power elite. But people like to speak only of past wars. The next war will never happen. Sustainable is thus a popular term for contemporary inhabitants of La-La Land. Apple carts never get upset, bad things never happen and this blissful state of peacefulness can be sustained forever. Undoubtedly this is what those who speak of sustainable things have in mind.

The world population right now is two to three times what a world without fossil fuels will maitain. Within the next several years grain production will decrease more rapidly, and fish stocks will become depleted to such a degree that they will be insufficient for the needs of the world population. We need to use solar energy to stop destruction of the earth's ecosystems. We need to use solar energy for this reason and not because it lowers per capita destructive effect of our population so that we may feel justified in letting the population increase further.

That's the long and short of it in a nutshell.

See how easy it is to understand photovoltaic energy?

Global renewable Energy Potential, Approaches
pege.org
International PV

Solar + Fuel Cells = ?

We were thinking about putting solar cells together with very efficient fuel cells. It seemed like a clever idea. So we asked the Big Kahuna, Jay Hanson. He must have been in a really rotten mood, however.

Dear Jay;
We thought that once the solar cells were made, they could be used to create electrical energy forever. Then they would replace the energy it took to produce them, right?
Then also the solar cells and / or some additional techniques could be used the electrolyse water to get the hydrogen for fuel cells. What could be more hunky-dory than that?

The Big Kahuna replied:
"No. That's a popular misconception. The only valid studies that have been done (Odum and his students) show that solar cells can not support themselves. In other words, when global oil and North American gas "peak" by the end of this decade, this civilization comes to a violent, radioactive end. That's why I don't worry about biodiversity. There won't be any "versity" at all in a radioactive mushroom cloud."
. -- Jay

Why so glum, Jay? Look, here's the multipart solution. Admittedly it's far fetched. But it is nonetheless possible. Some in Japan are already thinking in these terms.
1.)    Media tells the truth about energy and overpopulation.
2.)    Population goes down while substantive energy conservation is instituted. Utterance of obfuscatory remarks, jingoism, and platitudes are made crimes subject to severe punishment.
3.)    Available dwindling energy sources, including fission, are used to produce solar and hydrogen energy infrastructure. And that infrastructure is used as the interim solution for something else which isn't as yet on the drawing board.
4.)    Institutions and social modes of human behavior are given time to adapt themselves to new exigencies.

True, solar and hydrogen don't strictly pencil out ergonometrically. And true, fission fuel won't last forever. But with a population of four billion humans or hopefully less, this approach is not only possible, it is very do-able. It beats the heck out of Dr. StrangeLove, doen't it?

The biggest IF humanity has ever faced. In fact the biggest IF humanity could ever concieve.

Possible? Possible schmossible. Everything depends on plutocratic wirepullers. IF they really want Armageddon, they will make it happen by doing nothing. Make that continuing to do nothing. The situation has been well understood for quite some time, many decades. The status quo has humanity on a collision course with Armageddon. All they have to do is to give instructions to the Media to refrain from initiating the process by telling the truth. The beautiful thing about the Media is that it follows its directives very well. The beautiful thing about a democracy is that it can very easily be made to believe it is, in truth, a democracy.

Which will it be? Armageddon or Brave New World? When will we know?

When we hear the Media telling the truth, we will know that the decision has been made to choose a course for a New World.

Until we hear the truth in the Media, the status quo has humanity on a collision course with Armageddon.

The Media is the message.

Reviews from Amazon.com:

Jon E Traudt from Omaha, Nebraska
"This book is a great case study in management and innovation. It shows once again that a small group of dedicated individuals can compete successfully against much larger competitors. Fuel cells have long been successful in space craft. Soon you will be able to use them in your vehicles and buildings. Utility power plants typically discard about 60% of the heat energy from fuel. A fuel cell in your home would provide electricity efficiently. Instead of discarding the heat, you could use the fuel cell to heat your water everyday and provide some winter space heating. A fuel cell in your vehicle will increase fuel efficiency and eliminate the need for oil changes. About 40 cubic miles of crude oil remain available for more than six billion people, and we are consuming more than one cubic mile each year. By helping to reduce fuel consumption, fuel cells will help us to delay and reduce the severity of the coming shortages of fossil fuels."

Let the Hydrogen Revolution Begin!
August 10, 2000 Reviewer: A reader from San Francisco, CA USA
"The Hydrogen revolution has started with the unexpected emergence and success of fuel cell maker Ballard Power Systems. This is a very exciting industry. We are looking towards a future of abundant clean energy. Greenland is racing to become the first ever hydrogen economy, extricating itself from the reliance on foreign oil, and positioning itself as a possible future exporter of hydrogen. Oil companies are scrambling to redefine themselves as "energy companies." Innovative companies such as Energy Conversion Devices have come up with technologies allowing safe hydrogen storage. I suggest this book for anyone interested in environment and the future of energy."

Reviews from Amazon.com:

Book Description
The use of fuel cells as independent power sources is expected to become increasingly widespread in the next twenty years. From electric vehicles to mobile phones, the uses for this environmentally friendly and efficient energy source are growing. This book seeks to broaden understanding of the technology by setting out the working methods, behavior, limitations, special features, and potential of fuel cells in terms accessible to electrical, automotive, power, and control engineers.

Robert Wilder from Hawaii
"Fuel cells including their ranging balance of plant, are quite difficult to write about in usefully technical fashion, because the authors must have expertise across so many various disciplines: i.e. chemistry, engineering, materials, thermodynamics, systems theory, etc. Yet Larminie and Dicks are clearly up to the task, and we are the more fortunate for it. They've done the trick of not only writing a technically-inclined and broadly encompassing work for a fast-growing field (one that's much in need of such books now)--but they've also done it in a way that's surprisingly quite readable. This book could serve as an excellent self-instruction text for those new to fuel cells, or as a very helpful text for experts in particular fuel cell types who wish to brush up on other systems. And it could be used in any university level class. Should I be pursuaded to lend my copy briefly to someone I know well, then I shall also take care to ensure that I get it back promptly! It is quite reasonably up to date and highlights for instance Basic Principles; Efficiencies and Voltages; PEMFCs, AFCs, PAFCs; MCFCs; SOFCs; various possible fuel types; compressors, turbines, fans, blowers (etc); delivering FC power, among other topics. Remarkably, this book even happened to cover a very wide swath of topics that are of a personal interest--despite their diversity. I might suggest more discussion on just a few quite developing topics like sodium borohydride as an H2 storage/generation medium. Yet I note too that near-term emerging topics like that (and much farther off, potential blue sky topics like carbon nanotubes) are likely best left for a future edition of this excellent book. In sum, I highly recommend this book. It's usefully technical yet readable, essential for fuel cell enthusiasts. Though rather dear, it is I believe well worth the price..."

Understanding Fuel Cells
"This book is an actual text book that can be used for self learning. It is a year 2000 publication so it has up-to-date information on all types of fuel cells including an in depth chapter on Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells that most other books lack. The authors develop concepts and formulas in such a way that you don't have to have a PhD in electrochemistry to understand the subject. It also gives specific examples of the concepts and formulas to show how to use them. This book doesn't just cover the fuel cells themselves but goes into fuel reforming, pumps, electric motors and DC/AC inverters. It has many useful diagrams, tables and photos of fuel cells and their applications. I highly recommend this book to anyone who deals with any aspect of fuel cells."

Land, Energy and Water: The Constraints Governing Ideal U.S. Population Size by David and Marcia Pimentel January 1995

Excerpts:

Prosperity and Population

"If the United States were to move to a solar energy-based economy and become self-sustainable, what would be our options and levels of prosperity? With a self-sustaining solar energy system replacing our current dependence on fossil energy, the energy availability would be one-fifth to one-half the current level. Then if the U.S. population remained at its present level of 246 million, a significant reduction in our current standard of living would follow. This would occur even if all the energy conservation measures known today were adopted."

"If, however, the U.S. population wishes to continue its current high level of energy use and standard of living and prosperity, then its ideal population should be targeted at 40-100 million people. With sound energy conservation practices and a drastic reduction of energy use per capita to less than one-half current usage, it might be possible to support the current population. One projection suggests a significantly lower population level and the other a dramatic reduction in the standard of living. On the positive side, however, we do have sufficient fossil energy, especially coal, to help us make the needed transition in energy resources and population numbers over the next century, if we can manage the environmental impacts."

Conclusion

"At present levels of fertility and migration, the U.S. population will rise one-third by 2080; A modest increase in fertility could drive it past a half billion. We could be heading eventually toward population densities like those in present-day China. Comparisons to China clearly emphasize why the United States will be unable to maintain its current level of prosperity and high standard of living, which is based on its available land, water, energy, and biological resources. We know that supplies of fossil energy, a nonrenewable resource, are being rapidly depleted. In just a few years, most U.S. oil resources will be consumed. Fortunately, natural gas reserves will last for nearly 50 years while coal reserves will carry us beyond the next century."

"Therefore, we must start now to make the slow transition from our dependence on fossil fuels to development of solar energy power as our major energy resource. For the United States to be self-sustaining in solar energy, given our land, water, and biological resources, our population should be less than 100 million-significantly less than the current level of 246 million. However, with a drastic reduction in standard of living, the current population level might be sustained. With planning and determination, the United States could gradually reduce its numbers to more manageable levels."

"The available supply of fossil fuels, especially coal, will provide the time we need to make the necessary adjustments involving new solar energy technologies and agricultural practices. Coupled with this, Americans will have time to change their behavior and respect for natural resources and the environment."

"With a population of 40 to 100 million, the United States could become self-sustaining on solar energy while maintaining a quality environment, provided that sound energy conservation and environmental policies were in effect to preserve soil, water, air, and biological resources that sustain life. With these far-reaching changes, we feel confident that future generations of Americans would be able to enjoy prosperity and have a high standard of living. Starting to deal with the future before it reaches crisis level is the only way we will be able to avert real tragedy for our children's children. By education, fair population control, sound resource policies, the support of scientific research, and all people working together, Americans will be able to face the future with optimism and pride."

Full text can be read at:
npg.org/forum_series/land_energy%26water.htm