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How long have people been trying to use charts to predict movements of Markets? The
Japanese started the whole thing with their candlestick charts for rice futures circa 1500. Beyond Candlesticks
Let's assume that you've done your homework. You've read,
Beyond Candlesticks
, Technical Analysis
Explained
, The Visual Investor
, and Technical Analysis From
A to Z.
The most common question is, "Where will the market go from
here?" What's the direction of the markets? Who knows? The most reliable information comes from the
charts. If you trade stocks and options, you want to know charting basics. Buy and sell signals tell you when to buy
and sell. Buy and sell signals must be clear to be useful. Do clear signals appear every day? Unfortunately they do
not.
Consider the following quote from Martin Pring: "The goal of the (Dow) theory is to
determine changes in the primary or major movement of the market. Once a trend has been established, it is assumed to
exist until a reversal is proved. Dow theory is concerned with the direction of a trend and has no forecasting value as
to the ultimate duration or size of the trend. Starting in 1897, an investor who purchased stocks in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, DJIA, following each Dow theory buy signal , liquidated the position on sell signals, and
reinvested the money on the next buy signal, would have seen the original $44 in 1897 grow to about $51,268 by January
1990. If instead the investor had held onto the original $44 investment throughout that period, the investment would
have also grown, but only to about $2,500. In reality, the substantial profit earned by following the Dow theory would
have been trimmed by transaction costs and capital gains taxes. Even if a wide margin for error is allowed, the
investment performance using this approach would still have been far superior to the results of a buy-and-hold
strategy." Technical Analysis Explained
, page 31.
Let's assume you are not a buy and holder. If you were, you would look at the long term
charts and conclude one of two things which would make guessing the direction of the Market a moot point. The Market
movements are cyclical. The Market always goes up, the ups minus the downs over time always have yielded an up which
beats savings in banks. A glance at a ten year chart of the major indexes would indicate that now is a buy time. It
appears that a good precedent has been set; S&P of almost 1600, Dow of 12,000 or so, and a Nasdaq at a
whopping 5,132. An prudent long term investor might consider a chart of the Kondratieff Wave and be inclined to view
the current conditions as a bottom, or if not a bottom, at least a good entry point. From this perspective, monthly
stock purchases starting in the second half of 2002 don't look particularly unsound. The worst is probably over and
further downturns would seem to be even better buying opportunities. The cunningly clever Kabu Sensei suggests another
variation which a stock buy and holder might use under the present conditions, as of mid August, 2002; a limit buy
order. Figure what the price of a stock or an index fund might be with a DJIA of 6,500 or an S&P of 650. Place the
order for a price which is substantially lower than the current level and say to those big bad business titans, "Go
ahead. Make my decade!" Just be patient. When the order fills, relax and wait for the DJIA of 15,000, S&P of 2,000
and Nasdaq of five or six thousand before cashing out. |