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 KOOP, November 11,
2000.
Let's get serious. You don't need to actually
read any of the stories from day one. The chart and the headlines
are sufficient.

Everything started day one with the IPO. At
that time IPO was the street's acronym du jour. The company and its
underwriters demonstrated excellent timing strategy to take advantage of the
IPO hype and hysteria. KOOP stock opened at around twelve dollars /shr. It
peaked at around $45/ shr in less than a month and showed a bearish MACD from
that point till the present. Still, the share price was above the IPO opening
price for the majority of the first nine months. Any shareholder could have
bailed during that time period without a loss. But like the frog in the pot
analogy, turn up the heat quickly and the frog will jump out quickly. As the
heat is turned up slowly, he doesn't jump out and is cooked.
At the time KOOP went public, the IPO market
had cooled somewhat from the inane IPO scenario which had prevailed at around
the end of 1998. But conditions were still quite favorable for IPO wonder
speculation. And with the tiny float of 13 million KOOP shares, speculators had
little problem transforming the stock price into a virtual yo-yo. Extravagant
claims were rotated through many internet related sectors. First it was
anything tech. Then anything online. Then anything dot com. Then anything
online broker. Then anything online travel. Then anything online health. Etc,
ad nauseum. John Q. Investor took to reading future sector valuations in an
attempt to make sense of it all. Sector valuations of billions and tens of
billions were frequent. Dates in the 2003 and 2008 range were also frequent.
While John Q was scratching his head and wondering who was paying $350/shr for
thousand share lots of the big four or five, or gamling on the latest risky
IPO, savvy traders were winking and entering orders with a short two letter
acronym, "SL."
It was absolutely unavoidable to have to stake
a claim at a time when advertising was costly. KOOP had to spend money
extravagantly to keep in the public eye after the IPO. Then the Barron's
article. Then the layoffs. Then WebMD laid off and the patient(Drkoop.com) was
given a cash infusion, 27 million shares at 35 cents a share. How fickle people
are. But as soon as conditions permitted, the contracts were renegotiated and
the hemorrhaging was stopped. Ship captains don't like typhoons. But when you
are in one, you are in one.

Envy is blind. Envy is not reason. Envy is just
desire. When people see others making, "easy money," they want to do it as
well. Imagine buy and holders who paid $60 for T or the twits who bought into
$600-$750/ share for QCOM. Percentagewise they aren't as bad off as some
others. Probably the half trading day just after Thanksgiving day, 1998 was the
day with the highest number of carefully orchestrated squeezes in market
history. What a crash the following Monday. Anybody remember NAVR? OMKT? AWEB?
CNKT? Any of the dozen or so others? Buy and hold, yeah right. One tenth or one
fifteenth the value for as long as one's breath can be held. Some folks are
still holding. After that there was a whole bunch of class actions which
promised a knight in shining armor would swoop down from the heavens on a
winged horse and give theses suckered investors back the money they had lost.
That sort of warm fuzzy ending may happen in Hollywood fairytales. But look
here jelly bean, in real life sharks chew up their prey and swallow it and
deposit it out the other end. If you didn't know that, well, we're sorry to
have to bust your bubble. But that's the way it works.

That is not to say that a yarn can't be spun.
There are honorable men who can spin a tale for spell bound listeners.
Honorable men in courtrooms may be able to divorce a select few from reality
and hold them spellbound just long enough to set a precedent. Inveterate
nitpickers and molehill builder-uppers have been selected from eleven top notch
law firms. That's more than the number of firms involved after the nefarious
skulduggery involving over a dozen securities, which happened the day after
Thanksgiving 1998. The main difference is they are concentrating their
firepower on one tiny little upstart company with a puny little 13 million
shares and an excellent business plan. Does this seem reasonable? It doesn't
have to sound reasonable, it's a lawyer thing. That's why when investors heard
about eleven law firms going after Dr Koop, some knew it was time to bail.
It wouldn't be necessarily a bad thing. Just
think, you'd thereafter be able to buy stock and if it went down, just invoke
the established legal precedent. Say that the business plan of the company
whose stock you impetuously purchased was flawed. Better yet, say it was
intentionally flawed. That would make it a tort peccadillo for sure.
Investors might be able to wriggle out of their responsibility for due
diligence. SL orders would become obsolete. We might see a whole new era in
investing. A "New Paradigm." How about that. Buy some stock and it tanks. No
prob. You can claim the business plan was intentionally flawed. Boom, you get
your money back. Plus if it goes up you sell and make a profit. You short a
thousand shares of a stock and it triples. No prob. Just invoke the reverse
legal precedent. The business plan was too good and they kept it a secret from
you.
Boy oh boy, by gosh, by golly, you gotta hope
the plaintiffs win.
When KOOP still had value above the limit for
short selling, $5, the news beagn to mount up. More and more and more firms
joined in on the free for all. The firms representing jilted investors
publicized the class action suits and guess what? The stock value went down
below the $5 limit. Probably the jilted investors didn't realize that they
would cause a great devaluation of the stock. If they had looked ahead, they
may have realized that the stock would dive and that only investors with short
positions would benefit from that. But after the stock goes below $5 the shares
can't be shorted. They should have kept the eleven, count them eleven class
action law suits a secret instead of broadcasting the news all over the place.
See what happened? Now the stock is at $1. Nasdaq delists stocks which stay
below about $1. What if that happened? Being delisted from the Nasdaq often
precedes bankruptcy. The disgruntled investors might well have caused the
company to go bankrupt. How would the jilted investors get their money then?
Are the law firms working pro bono? Hmm. You'll just have to think this one
through. It's all so very, gosh darn confusing. |
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What is the bottom line? You might say that the
news on KOOP stinks and you'd be 100% correct. Could the bottom line be that
the news on KOOP is a classic example of the opposite of, "too good to
be true." The news on KOOP has been too terrible to be true. That might be the
penultimate bottom line.
But the bottom line is: "It's the CONTENT
STUPID."
Dr Koop is a medical scientist with vision. He
has the inside track on medical content and his vision for its presentation
differs markedly from the quasi-tabloid nature of the competition. People have
not yet realized this. In time they will. drkoop.com will be recognized as a
leading source of trusted and authoritative medical information. |
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It really doesn't sound like drkoop.com intends
to go bankrupt, does it? Mr. Rosenblatt didn't leave his former position to
manage drkoop.com's bankruptcy. |
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Position C. Everett Koop, M.D., 83 Chairman,
John Zaccaro, 65 Vice Chairman, Richard Rosenblatt CEO, Director, Edward
Cespedes Pres, Stephen Plutsky CFO
Top institutional holders of KOOP:
http://biz.yahoo.com/hd/k/koop.html
Book Value (mrq) $0.70 Market Capitalization
$27.3M Shares Outstanding 34.9M Float 14.7M, Sales (ttm) $15.3M, Volume
(3-month avg) 1.34M Daily Volume (10-day avg) 266.0K
Source: Yahoo! company profile page on KOOP:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/koop.html
Yahoo! research page on KOOP:
http://biz.yahoo.com/z/a/k/koop.html Earnings
growth est. for the next five years: 48.4 %/year av., Average of four analysts'
recommendations: 2nd week Nov., 2.50, Number of brokers recommending as: Strong
Buy 1 Moderate Buy 0 Hold 3, EPS for Jun 2000, -$1.18/shr., Surprise -0.85
% |
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Good omen. The word on the street has changed
quite a bit in its tone and tenor.
"They need inspiration. If you were to grab a
couple of these numbskulls, at, say, Drkoop.com (KOOP) or EToys (ETYS) by the
collar and shake the crap out of them, it might send a message. A message that
says: 'I love you, but let's stay focused. We've got a business to
build.'" David Bunnell from UPSIDE.
"drkoop.com Prepares to Reclaim Leadership
Position in Consumer e-Health With World-Class Management Team." Oct. 31,
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/001031/tx_drkoop_.html
Nov 03,2000, Wall Street Journal,
http://public.wsj.com/sn/y/SB973199797678451015.html"Drkoop.com
Acquires Web Site drDrew.com" "for 1.58 million shares of drkoop.com stock plus
$150,000 in cash." $150k cash? You can't beat the price with a stick. Does it
seem like companies are being aquired for reasonable prices these days? The
company said it will continue to seek out "undervalued properties" for
potential acquisitions and that the deal, "creates additional licensing
revenue"
Oct 26, Reuters, drkoop.com Inc. and Medical
Advisory Systems Inc. have formed a partnership which "could boost
struggling drkoop.com's revenues.""New services would include doctor
chats, medical travel insurance and clinical trial referrals for Medical
Advisory's network of pharmaceutical and biotechnology customers"
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1) What are the law suits
about? Answer: At best the suits are about disgruntled investors wanting
to get back money of which they had been temporarily deprived. At worst the
filings themselves may represent unethical behavior. If they are substantiated
get ready for a whole new paradigm in stock investing. Risk free.

The legal argument is essentially for better or
worse, DITW, dead in the water.
2) How does one make a 10-fold return on
the outcome of the possible or likely dismissal of the law suits? In the
simplest of terms one buys for $1 and sells for $10.
Is everyone out there convinced of the good
doctors guilt, bidding down his stock in the interim? Answer: No. The stock
price has come way down providing an unexpectedly good buy opportunity.
Paradoxically, this whole mess could conceivably have been facilitated by the
good doctor's impeccable virtue and lack of culpability. Profits were made on
the rise of KOOP stock's price and on it's fall. The doctor's goodness and the
soundness of the business endeavor itself would insure that profits will be
enjoyed yet again on the way back up.
Is a "limit order" the key to major growth
in value due to leverage and risk of some kind, which you have have not yet
explained? Answer: No, if you enter an limit order to buy, for example
CSCO at $40, you pay a maximum of $40/ shr of CSCO purchased per that
order. |
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The recent story doesn't say a word about
the law suits but addresses Dr. Koop's projects on medical ethics via Internet.
This sounds (at first guess) like measures taken to protect his Internet
investments, which might be adversely affected by the law suits you mention,
though (like you) I am inclined to trust the good doctor, mindful that one can
fall into the pitfalls of the Internet without being on the far side of
actionable deceit. |
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You are incorrect about your first point. Dr
Koop epitomizes high ethical standards in word and deed. Dr. Koop has always
done so even in the face of more severe adversity. The timing is merely
coincidental. You are correct about your last point. Dr. Koop bears no
culpability whatsoever for any malfeasance. He doesn't have time for such
pettiness. |
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