Everyone, and especially the apparently erudite and astute among business analysts, economists, and government oficials, are trying these days to outdo each other in their impersonations of air head comic characters. Some try, and rather convincingly we must say, to mimic Bozo the Clown. Others seem to be trying their luck at mimicing Daffy Duck, Baby Huey, Elmer Fudd, one of the Three Stooges,or some combination of the above. One has the impression that there must be a competition currently in progress for some enviable and greatly coveted grand prize to be awarded the winner. The contest rules are simple enough. The winner would be the person who can be the most circumspect in offering fallacious explanations for the downturn in the once booming economies of the members of the erstwhile Asian Tigers club. Mere circumspection alone would not, however, guarantee the winning of this prize. The winner must stand out from the crowd. To be able to take this prize home and display it with proper pomp and ostentation on one's the mantle, the winner wouild be the one who most egregiously and steadfastly ignores the deafeningly loud giant sucking sound eminating from China.

If there were ever a cliche which aptly fit a circumstance, the description of a giant sucking sound as it pertains to China is just such a one. Voltaire was fond of saying, and in fact repeated often, in the form and substance of his works of literary art, "La vie est pleine des paradoxes." In the present case, the paradox is that the statistical minutae concerning the economic status and condition of every nation of the world, including, but not limited to, the Asian nations are exhaustively cataloged, classified, categorized, explained and defined by economic scientists and business analysts in both the public and private sectors. Infinite numbers of data are archived in government bureaus and university libraries. Massive supercomputers are housed in think tanks in both the public and private sectors of all the G8 nations and others as well, crunching bits of data relentlessly, incessantly, day and night to provide computer models with the ability to predict this and that. And all that notwithstanding even now, in a hour of economic crisis which is worsening in severity, no one is insightful enough to see the glaringly obvious, let alone courageous enough to state it in print: China's new economic development is the major root cause of the economic crisis in Asia. A separate and debatable point would be to what extent the crisis would spread worldwide.

We are by now well accustomed to hearing that for the economy of Japan to pull out of its negative and worsening rate of growth, major reforms and massive increases in consumer spending are required for improvement. Yet another in a continuing series of economic stimulus packages is being considered in the Diet. As though the consumption tax yo-yoing up and down could cause such an increase in the spending of cautious and skeptical Japanese consumers that they would be able to go on a spending spree and spend their way out of this national recession.

We hear that Indonesia's government so full of corruption and nepotism could undergo some reforms and be all better. We hear that Singapore's government is urging repatriation of aliens and an increase in the birthrate of its own population, together with a call for even more tightly controlled efficiency in both the management of its companies as well as its society as a whole. We hear that South Korea just needs a loan to see it through a time of aberrant negative growth. We hear that Thailand is basically ok; it just needs to find the right exchange rate for its currency. We hear that Hong Kong is ok, they just need more freedom and for everybody to remember Tienanmen Square. We hear that the Philippines will do just fine now that they finally have an ex-actor for president. And we hear that Taiwan still has a positive rate of economic growth so they will come out of it alright.

Fact:

China now continues a trend of manufacturing greater than fifty per cent of the world's output of products in almost every category of product for which statistics are kept. In some key industrial and consumer categories the rate is above eighty per cent. In categories where production output is less than fifty percent of world output, the percentage of world output is increasing and the parts made in China for goods in such categories are substantial and increasing.

Both the overall output and the diversity of the output of goods manufactured in China have been increasing at an accelerating rate. That rate is currently between seven and eight percent annually. Computer chips, parts and accessories, refrigerators, sewing machines, telephones, plastic parts,toys and other plastic goods, stereos, televisions, radios, air conditioners, irons and ironing boards, car parts, metal and machine products in all categories, etc., etc., seemingly ad infinitum, China has become the country of choice for the manufacter of anything and everything. Every level of technological sophistication in manufacturing is present. China also exports parts to companies in a second country for assembly and the completed item is sold under the brand name of a company in the respective country. Its one point three billion and growing population is organized, disciplined, efficient, and dedicated to emulating the affluence of the west. The rest of the countries will have to be content with devoting themselves to an increasing degree to becoming service economies or with the assembly of parts. You can count on the downturn in Asia lasting a considerable time longer than most expect who have not considered its source.

If you think this is too simplistic just ask any manufacturing business in Japan where they've set up manufacturing facilities in the last ten years. Every one will have set up from one to several of its main manufacturing plants in China. And most will also be planning more. Ask a South Korean businessman how much it costs to make a semiconductor and he might say the equivalent of 3,000 yen. The same thing in China? 300 yen. Ask a businessman from Thailand, Malaysia, or Indonesia which have average monthly per capita incomes in the range of 40 to 140 US dollars a month, where the cheapest, and therefore obviously, the most profitable venue is for manufacturing any particular item which their factory might make and nine times in ten it will be .... CHINA. The place where that great big ol' loud sucking sound is coming from.